Three card poker hand odds
There are exactly C(52,3) = 22,100 different three-card hands. Counting how many fall into each category gives the precise odds of every three card poker hand. Note again that a straight is rarer than a flush, which is why it ranks higher:
| Hand | Combinations | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Straight Flush | 48 | 0.22% |
| Three of a Kind | 52 | 0.24% |
| Straight | 720 | 3.26% |
| Flush | 1,096 | 4.96% |
| Pair | 3,744 | 16.94% |
| High Card | 16,440 | 74.39% |
| Total | 22,100 | 100% |
How often you make a paying hand
Add the categories up and you make a pair or better — a Pair Plus winner — about 25.6% of the time, or a little more than one hand in four. You will hold high card, a non-paying hand, roughly three hands out of four, which is why folding correctly matters so much when you play three card poker.
Will the dealer qualify?
The dealer needs Queen-high or better to qualify. That happens on about 69.6% of hands, so the dealer fails to qualify roughly 30% of the time — and on those hands your Ante pays and the Play bet pushes. This qualify frequency is exactly why the Queen-Six-Four threshold sits where it does.
Pair Plus odds and payouts
Pair Plus is a pure bet on your own three cards. Combining the hand odds above with a pay table gives its return. On the common 1-4-6-30-40 table the house edge is about 7.28%; better tables (for example paying 3:1 on a straight flush... higher on straight) lower it. The payouts:
| Hand | Probability | Pair Plus pays |
|---|---|---|
| Straight Flush | 0.22% | 40 : 1 |
| Three of a Kind | 0.24% | 30 : 1 |
| Straight | 3.26% | 6 : 1 |
| Flush | 4.96% | 4 : 1 |
| Pair | 16.94% | 1 : 1 |
| No pair | 74.39% | Lose |
Overall house edge
Putting the qualify odds, the Ante Bonus and optimal Q-6-4 play together, the Ante game returns a house edge of about 3.37% per Ante, or 2.01% on the element of risk (total money wagered including the Play bet). The Ante Bonus — 1:1 straight, 4:1 trips, 5:1 straight flush, paid even when the dealer folds — is what keeps the edge that low. Check any hand against the strategy in our advisor or deal one below.
More: the full rules and pay tables, the strategy trainer, and our video poker house-edge data.
Probabilities are exact over all 22,100 three-card combinations. House edge and Pair Plus figures are standard published values for the pay tables shown. Educational content, not gambling advice.
How three card poker is played against the dealer
To read the odds it helps to remember the flow. In three card poker you are played against the dealer, not other players: you post an Ante bet, receive a three-card poker hand, then either fold or make a Play bet equal to the Ante. To pay out you must beat the dealer's hand once the dealer qualifies with Queen-high or better. Because the Ante and Play bets are settled together, the odds of each three card poker hand and the dealer's qualify rate fully determine the house edge.
Three of a kind and straight flush odds
The two rarest three card poker hands are the ones that pay the most. A three of a kind appears on just 52 of the 22,100 combinations — about 1 in 425 hands, or 0.24% — and a straight flush is rarer still at 48 combinations, roughly 1 in 460 (0.22%). Those long odds are exactly why a three of a kind pays a 4:1 Ante Bonus and 30:1 on Pair Plus, and a straight flush pays 5:1 and 40:1. You will wait a long time between them, but the Ante Bonus on a three of a kind or straight flush is paid even when the dealer folds, which softens the game's overall edge.
Putting the three card poker odds together
Combine the hand odds with the dealer qualify rate and the correct Q-6-4 play and you get the full picture of the casino game: you make a paying pair-or-better roughly a quarter of the time, the dealer qualifies about 70% of the time, and optimal play holds the Ante game to about a 2% edge on the money you put at risk. Every one of these three card poker odds is a fixed count over the 22,100 possible hands — nothing about the game is random once you know the numbers.